* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 90 91 89 82 80 79 82 77 71 67 69 67 65 61 58 V (KT) LAND 85 88 90 91 89 82 80 79 82 77 71 67 69 67 65 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 85 89 92 92 90 84 80 74 64 52 46 47 53 58 60 59 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 14 16 24 25 41 46 52 49 23 14 11 6 13 14 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 1 2 5 7 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 231 222 219 229 233 232 232 232 222 218 261 227 231 228 218 212 218 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.2 24.4 23.3 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.1 21.9 22.5 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 142 131 125 125 123 117 101 92 96 95 95 95 86 90 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 120 122 113 109 110 108 100 85 78 79 77 77 79 75 78 72 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -53.9 -55.6 -56.6 -56.1 -56.1 -55.7 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 51 49 51 49 46 43 39 39 46 48 50 48 51 56 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 34 34 34 41 46 53 51 47 44 44 42 41 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 96 87 91 71 72 54 89 119 190 192 187 170 160 159 147 152 167 200 MB DIV 69 88 77 54 53 63 53 97 76 10 10 -9 14 9 31 46 66 700-850 TADV 7 12 15 19 13 6 -15 -11 -24 -7 3 1 0 6 10 -1 2 LAND (KM) 971 1055 1094 1079 1076 1092 986 924 867 805 798 804 806 800 737 674 707 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.8 29.5 30.5 31.4 33.5 35.7 37.6 38.9 39.5 39.7 39.7 39.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.9 66.8 66.6 66.0 65.3 63.1 60.0 56.7 54.0 52.0 50.9 50.6 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 13 15 17 14 10 6 3 1 1 4 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 21 9 7 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -21. -28. -34. -39. -44. -49. -52. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -24. -21. -18. -15. -13. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 10. 17. 27. 25. 19. 14. 13. 10. 7. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 4. -3. -5. -6. -3. -8. -14. -18. -16. -18. -20. -24. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 28.0 66.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 483.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 15.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 7.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.6% 2.4% 0.9% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 8.3% 5.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 11( 30) 8( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 90 91 89 82 80 79 82 77 71 67 69 67 65 61 58 18HR AGO 85 84 86 87 85 78 76 75 78 73 67 63 65 63 61 57 54 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 80 73 71 70 73 68 62 58 60 58 56 52 49 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 66 64 63 66 61 55 51 53 51 49 45 42 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 59 57 56 59 54 48 44 46 44 42 38 35 IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 65 63 62 65 60 54 50 52 50 48 44 41 IN 12HR 85 88 90 81 75 71 69 68 71 66 60 56 58 56 54 50 47