* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 87 90 91 88 89 86 86 79 70 64 61 60 56 49 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 87 90 91 88 89 86 86 79 70 64 61 60 56 49 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 84 87 89 89 87 83 74 65 54 48 48 51 54 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 12 17 25 42 45 48 39 24 8 6 8 3 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 0 3 4 6 3 7 1 -7 2 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 245 253 226 215 217 233 225 229 218 215 216 229 238 208 238 1 325 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.5 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.3 22.8 22.0 21.5 20.9 17.7 15.1 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 133 140 143 125 124 121 117 107 88 83 80 78 71 68 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 111 113 119 123 110 109 105 99 90 75 70 68 68 65 64 62 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -52.1 -54.8 -56.2 -57.0 -56.7 -57.0 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.2 3.8 3.1 2.8 1.2 0.7 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 52 51 50 48 46 40 41 46 50 51 53 58 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 30 32 35 37 44 49 54 53 48 45 43 43 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 98 83 86 84 87 68 67 101 148 186 185 176 143 139 123 134 164 200 MB DIV 39 42 66 90 77 55 68 85 91 50 8 -1 -19 25 38 69 34 700-850 TADV 8 10 9 12 13 15 6 -17 -22 -11 -2 1 2 0 1 -7 -15 LAND (KM) 913 952 992 1071 1086 1048 1035 901 820 771 667 633 623 613 531 405 320 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.9 29.6 31.6 34.0 36.4 38.3 39.8 40.7 41.0 41.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.7 66.9 66.8 66.6 65.5 63.3 60.4 57.7 55.3 53.8 53.2 52.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 9 13 16 16 13 10 5 2 2 2 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 22 22 7 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -26. -31. -36. -40. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -18. -16. -14. -13. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 15. 22. 29. 27. 20. 14. 11. 9. 6. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 13. 14. 11. 11. 4. -5. -11. -14. -15. -19. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 27.3 66.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.5% 30.6% 23.9% 18.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.0% 37.6% 25.9% 13.9% 6.6% 5.2% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 21.7% 12.2% 5.3% 17.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.7% 26.8% 18.4% 16.3% 6.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 12( 24) 12( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 84 87 90 91 88 89 86 86 79 70 64 61 60 56 49 18HR AGO 75 74 78 81 84 85 82 83 80 80 73 64 58 55 54 50 43 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 77 78 75 76 73 73 66 57 51 48 47 43 36 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 69 66 67 64 64 57 48 42 39 38 34 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 84 75 69 65 62 63 60 60 53 44 38 35 34 30 23