* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 82 87 91 95 95 95 94 92 85 75 68 64 61 60 52 V (KT) LAND 70 77 82 87 91 95 95 95 94 92 85 75 68 64 61 60 52 V (KT) LGEM 70 78 83 87 90 93 88 84 80 71 58 50 48 51 55 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 14 15 27 33 43 48 50 28 10 5 1 5 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 3 3 3 6 0 -5 -1 1 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 259 235 242 228 211 224 223 233 224 222 219 234 195 225 229 317 256 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 27.2 27.0 26.6 25.8 24.5 24.3 23.3 22.6 22.4 22.1 21.2 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 133 138 144 127 126 122 113 102 99 91 85 83 82 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 113 117 123 110 110 105 97 87 82 76 71 69 69 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -53.2 -55.0 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.8 3.6 2.6 2.4 1.7 0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 51 50 50 52 50 47 44 43 50 55 58 59 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 28 28 32 34 40 46 52 51 47 43 41 39 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 94 89 73 76 72 60 52 65 140 168 194 186 163 144 154 178 166 200 MB DIV 34 21 31 49 83 71 71 73 129 59 10 16 -3 17 40 47 27 700-850 TADV 6 5 7 7 10 18 13 16 -8 -11 -6 0 2 0 2 -12 -1 LAND (KM) 921 952 985 1047 1086 1027 1067 941 839 743 684 600 567 556 556 545 535 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.7 29.3 31.1 33.2 35.5 37.6 39.4 40.6 41.3 41.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.5 66.8 66.8 66.9 66.1 64.3 61.9 59.3 56.7 54.8 53.8 53.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 8 11 14 15 14 12 7 4 1 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 22 24 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -24. -29. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -18. -16. -14. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 8. 16. 24. 32. 32. 26. 19. 14. 11. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. 15. 5. -2. -6. -9. -10. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.3 66.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.3% 37.3% 30.3% 23.6% 13.3% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.0% 47.5% 35.7% 16.0% 7.2% 6.8% 2.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 21.5% 11.3% 4.1% 10.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.9% 32.0% 23.4% 16.7% 7.0% 6.4% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 12( 22) 17( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 77 82 87 91 95 95 95 94 92 85 75 68 64 61 60 52 18HR AGO 70 69 74 79 83 87 87 87 86 84 77 67 60 56 53 52 44 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 75 79 79 79 78 76 69 59 52 48 45 44 36 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 68 68 68 67 65 58 48 41 37 34 33 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT