* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 75 82 85 86 91 92 89 80 70 59 53 49 46 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 75 82 85 86 91 92 89 80 70 59 53 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 67 71 80 81 81 79 73 62 53 47 46 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 7 10 13 21 33 44 43 46 30 21 8 2 4 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 1 -5 0 0 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 344 279 234 236 224 217 232 229 227 218 215 221 172 107 284 269 202 SST (C) 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.3 25.1 23.6 22.3 21.3 20.9 20.9 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 128 130 134 139 133 128 123 117 118 105 93 84 79 76 76 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 109 110 114 118 115 111 107 101 99 88 78 71 67 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -52.4 -53.4 -54.5 -55.4 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.8 4.4 3.3 2.8 2.3 0.7 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 53 53 51 52 50 48 44 44 47 56 61 63 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 26 29 31 34 38 45 51 54 50 46 41 37 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 92 92 95 78 78 70 51 62 110 168 213 245 231 212 202 206 195 200 MB DIV 38 39 25 33 51 86 68 82 106 85 39 15 14 17 21 24 20 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 8 6 12 14 9 -6 -9 -3 -2 14 4 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 923 949 978 1026 1076 1070 1083 1002 856 771 716 601 545 534 534 534 534 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.9 30.4 32.5 34.7 36.9 38.8 40.3 41.3 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.1 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.1 64.6 62.7 60.3 57.6 55.5 54.0 53.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 7 10 13 14 14 13 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 21 21 22 11 10 6 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. -18. -18. -16. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 23. 32. 35. 30. 22. 14. 8. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 27. 30. 31. 36. 37. 34. 25. 15. 4. -2. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.1 65.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 29.2% 19.1% 15.8% 10.4% 16.3% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 35.4% 23.7% 13.8% 7.7% 9.8% 3.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 6.6% 5.5% 1.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 23.4% 14.7% 10.6% 6.1% 8.7% 5.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 69 75 82 85 86 91 92 89 80 70 59 53 49 46 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 70 77 80 81 86 87 84 75 65 54 48 44 41 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 62 69 72 73 78 79 76 67 57 46 40 36 33 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 58 61 62 67 68 65 56 46 35 29 25 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT