* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 56 60 64 73 77 82 84 86 88 86 78 70 65 63 59 V (KT) LAND 50 52 56 60 64 73 77 82 84 86 88 86 78 70 65 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 56 60 69 74 76 75 71 64 56 50 48 49 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 2 7 11 18 27 37 46 41 33 17 9 2 4 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 5 -3 -1 -3 3 0 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 351 339 274 225 237 208 228 223 227 222 212 219 196 147 306 287 353 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.5 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.0 24.2 24.0 23.1 21.7 22.4 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 129 131 135 143 124 124 122 116 100 96 89 80 85 93 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 109 111 114 122 108 108 106 99 85 80 75 67 71 76 77 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -53.2 -54.9 -56.0 -56.4 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 53 53 54 53 50 50 48 47 52 59 63 65 60 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 25 27 31 32 37 41 47 52 53 49 46 42 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 88 87 92 90 73 66 56 59 76 142 184 220 221 192 184 177 192 200 MB DIV 31 37 34 25 25 88 69 86 77 104 62 10 24 16 24 29 30 700-850 TADV 0 2 7 6 7 12 18 11 -4 3 -12 -2 -3 7 3 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 903 926 951 985 1020 1087 1059 1069 932 818 708 614 545 534 533 534 543 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.4 29.7 31.4 33.4 35.7 38.1 40.0 41.2 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.0 66.3 66.5 66.7 66.5 65.5 63.8 61.5 58.6 56.2 54.5 53.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 6 8 11 14 15 15 11 7 4 0 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 21 21 21 21 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -10. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 20. 26. 34. 34. 28. 21. 15. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 27. 32. 34. 36. 39. 36. 28. 20. 15. 13. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.9 65.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.4% 11.2% 9.0% 8.4% 11.6% 11.1% 8.4% Logistic: 4.4% 22.6% 13.8% 8.8% 4.8% 7.9% 5.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 13.3% 8.4% 6.0% 4.4% 6.5% 5.4% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 56 60 64 73 77 82 84 86 88 86 78 70 65 63 59 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 61 70 74 79 81 83 85 83 75 67 62 60 56 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 63 67 72 74 76 78 76 68 60 55 53 49 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 53 57 62 64 66 68 66 58 50 45 43 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT