* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 59 65 73 78 81 82 88 92 85 75 69 62 60 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 59 65 73 78 81 82 88 92 85 75 69 62 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 52 54 61 70 76 76 74 72 65 53 45 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 13 10 9 4 11 15 26 38 45 40 37 18 9 2 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 3 8 -1 -5 -2 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 30 24 2 346 279 244 207 223 226 235 221 209 216 218 251 274 251 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.7 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.0 22.4 20.9 20.4 19.3 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 126 127 131 138 146 127 125 124 119 106 87 79 75 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 111 108 108 111 116 124 110 109 108 102 90 75 69 65 64 63 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -53.0 -54.6 -55.7 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.6 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 58 55 52 50 49 49 47 48 45 50 58 60 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 24 25 27 30 33 36 40 48 55 53 48 45 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 89 95 100 97 80 70 60 92 133 181 213 196 178 149 157 200 MB DIV 37 28 24 29 39 27 87 67 82 64 119 83 28 30 -4 10 19 700-850 TADV 9 3 3 3 5 8 9 18 14 4 -3 -13 -2 1 4 3 4 LAND (KM) 837 875 908 931 955 1013 1116 1076 1093 959 849 739 611 604 600 576 553 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.3 29.5 31.1 33.2 35.6 37.9 40.1 41.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.5 65.7 65.9 66.2 66.6 66.3 65.5 63.7 61.0 58.2 55.4 53.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 11 15 16 16 13 7 3 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 30 24 21 21 25 27 23 8 5 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -0. -6. -11. -16. -17. -18. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 30. 39. 34. 26. 20. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 38. 42. 35. 25. 19. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.0 65.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.5% 10.6% 8.5% 7.9% 11.2% 11.9% 11.2% Logistic: 2.7% 15.2% 7.9% 7.0% 4.5% 10.3% 7.6% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.8% 6.2% 5.2% 4.1% 7.2% 6.5% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 56 59 65 73 78 81 82 88 92 85 75 69 62 60 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 57 63 71 76 79 80 86 90 83 73 67 60 58 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 58 66 71 74 75 81 85 78 68 62 55 53 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 57 62 65 66 72 76 69 59 53 46 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT