* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 51 53 59 66 74 74 75 77 83 84 75 67 61 54 V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 51 53 59 66 74 74 75 77 83 84 75 67 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 48 48 49 53 60 68 70 70 69 67 61 50 43 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 22 12 10 10 8 13 22 31 42 47 49 40 23 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 2 7 2 4 0 -1 -4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 20 35 35 8 358 255 241 219 232 230 230 223 218 209 200 241 295 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.4 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.1 25.2 22.6 19.2 16.6 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 133 129 129 134 140 142 127 123 124 116 108 90 75 69 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 113 109 109 113 119 121 110 107 107 100 92 78 68 64 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -53.0 -54.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 3.5 2.9 2.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 60 57 52 50 47 48 49 47 38 35 40 55 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 24 27 29 32 32 35 40 49 53 52 47 43 39 850 MB ENV VOR 65 77 92 92 95 100 92 86 80 58 111 169 209 224 226 178 154 200 MB DIV 21 39 30 32 30 24 50 77 51 66 85 106 36 14 21 9 23 700-850 TADV 10 7 2 1 2 5 7 9 14 6 1 -14 -6 -6 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 771 819 860 883 908 958 1047 1096 1099 1087 973 894 839 692 603 541 510 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.7 28.6 30.0 31.6 33.6 35.6 37.6 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.4 65.5 65.7 65.9 66.4 66.5 66.1 64.9 63.0 60.6 57.7 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 8 11 14 15 14 13 10 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 27 24 23 27 25 18 12 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -24. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 7. 12. 18. 29. 34. 29. 21. 15. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 24. 24. 25. 27. 33. 34. 25. 17. 11. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.4 65.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.7% 8.7% 7.2% 6.7% 10.2% 10.3% 11.2% Logistic: 1.3% 7.5% 3.5% 4.2% 3.5% 10.9% 9.2% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.9% 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% 7.0% 6.5% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 50 51 53 59 66 74 74 75 77 83 84 75 67 61 54 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 53 59 66 74 74 75 77 83 84 75 67 61 54 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 49 55 62 70 70 71 73 79 80 71 63 57 50 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 48 55 63 63 64 66 72 73 64 56 50 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT