* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 58 58 60 64 68 77 79 80 79 80 79 76 71 63 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 58 58 60 64 68 77 79 80 79 80 79 76 71 63 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 57 57 58 62 68 71 71 68 65 60 54 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 26 26 20 12 3 12 19 28 33 47 55 52 42 34 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 2 4 2 3 1 -3 0 6 4 0 3 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 7 11 15 20 33 2 3 239 216 225 219 225 227 222 217 207 199 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.4 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.7 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 152 151 140 131 130 137 131 124 122 116 116 111 106 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 130 129 119 111 111 117 113 107 105 100 99 94 89 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 59 59 57 55 51 47 44 45 47 49 43 39 47 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 21 23 22 23 25 26 31 32 35 38 44 49 52 52 49 850 MB ENV VOR 28 53 58 56 74 70 77 69 72 73 71 74 114 138 180 212 223 200 MB DIV 66 40 12 26 45 31 36 37 64 58 81 64 100 58 40 32 25 700-850 TADV 9 9 12 13 11 4 4 4 6 9 8 3 -16 -31 -21 -9 3 LAND (KM) 627 660 693 737 781 875 951 1026 1160 1169 1197 1141 1122 1109 1006 923 895 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.1 29.3 30.9 32.5 34.0 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.6 65.7 65.4 64.5 62.9 60.5 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 7 10 12 13 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 45 43 42 33 24 21 18 17 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. 1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 10. 13. 16. 23. 28. 30. 27. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 13. 22. 24. 25. 24. 25. 24. 21. 16. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.1 65.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.24 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.5% 9.2% 7.4% 6.6% 9.6% 9.2% 10.9% Logistic: 2.1% 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 0.8% 3.3% 2.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.5% 3.9% 3.2% 2.5% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 58 58 60 64 68 77 79 80 79 80 79 76 71 63 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 55 57 61 65 74 76 77 76 77 76 73 68 60 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 54 58 62 71 73 74 73 74 73 70 65 57 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 47 51 55 64 66 67 66 67 66 63 58 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT