* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 54 55 56 61 66 70 73 70 70 71 72 71 66 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 54 55 56 61 66 70 73 70 70 71 72 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 52 50 50 52 56 62 65 63 61 59 58 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 29 26 27 14 11 4 11 21 28 41 44 56 52 32 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 0 2 5 5 4 1 3 5 9 7 5 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 5 12 14 16 26 29 19 269 231 209 213 216 225 232 221 219 219 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.7 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.2 26.3 25.4 24.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 154 153 144 134 130 135 132 130 123 117 118 110 105 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 132 132 131 123 114 110 115 113 113 108 101 102 94 90 83 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 59 61 61 59 59 54 50 47 43 41 41 44 40 34 39 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 21 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 30 33 40 46 48 47 850 MB ENV VOR 12 19 48 62 60 92 91 91 74 78 80 65 90 120 187 246 248 200 MB DIV 46 63 31 6 14 42 28 22 38 54 42 65 54 54 72 23 35 700-850 TADV 6 8 8 10 13 4 4 5 6 5 5 0 3 -11 -22 1 0 LAND (KM) 614 631 649 693 738 849 917 982 1083 1152 1179 1154 1082 1072 990 907 908 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.7 25.1 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.7 30.1 31.7 33.6 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.3 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.5 65.8 65.8 65.3 63.9 61.5 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 8 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 51 50 49 45 43 37 27 24 21 13 22 5 0 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -27. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 12. 19. 26. 26. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 20. 20. 21. 22. 21. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.0 65.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 13.7% 9.3% 7.1% 0.0% 8.8% 9.2% 11.4% Logistic: 3.1% 4.5% 3.8% 2.3% 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.1% 4.6% 3.2% 0.2% 3.6% 3.5% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 54 54 55 56 61 66 70 73 70 70 71 72 71 66 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 51 52 53 58 63 67 70 67 67 68 69 68 63 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 48 49 54 59 63 66 63 63 64 65 64 59 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 42 47 52 56 59 56 56 57 58 57 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT