* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 47 44 47 48 55 61 68 71 72 72 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 47 44 47 48 55 61 68 71 72 72 68 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 44 40 38 38 40 44 50 57 61 60 57 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 32 34 29 27 30 15 17 4 12 24 30 40 49 50 40 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 12 7 6 3 3 7 3 2 -3 0 1 8 5 3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 9 1 12 19 16 34 31 24 325 245 225 231 225 230 214 208 235 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.4 27.7 27.3 26.8 25.4 25.0 16.6 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 158 160 158 156 151 143 139 142 133 129 123 111 108 74 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 131 135 135 133 129 122 119 121 114 111 107 97 95 70 67 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -50.7 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 53 54 59 60 57 57 55 54 52 50 48 44 41 42 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 23 20 22 22 23 24 27 30 33 38 41 48 51 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 6 27 55 67 105 100 111 87 81 62 52 94 167 178 207 200 MB DIV 40 25 29 49 28 -1 38 23 39 45 72 60 67 43 48 59 -2 700-850 TADV -4 6 8 10 4 6 7 -1 5 2 6 8 7 -9 -24 1 9 LAND (KM) 679 656 634 651 667 742 826 908 1028 1154 1128 1135 1031 956 816 532 519 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.4 24.5 25.2 26.1 27.0 28.2 29.6 31.2 33.0 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.9 65.9 65.7 64.8 63.2 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 0 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 10 12 14 17 19 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 48 46 45 38 34 33 28 19 19 8 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -12. -15. -21. -27. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 25. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. 2. 3. 10. 16. 23. 26. 27. 27. 23. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.6 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 3.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 47 44 47 48 55 61 68 71 72 72 68 71 71 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 45 42 45 46 53 59 66 69 70 70 66 69 69 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 39 42 43 50 56 63 66 67 67 63 66 66 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 33 36 37 44 50 57 60 61 61 57 60 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT