* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 52 46 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 52 46 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 53 47 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 47 49 42 43 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -3 0 4 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 244 243 242 242 245 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 27.5 28.1 27.3 26.9 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 130 138 128 122 128 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 110 116 107 103 108 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 1 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 36 32 27 26 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 31 28 26 19 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 55 103 114 120 140 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 36 28 8 -6 -34 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -22 -22 -27 -7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 85 157 247 341 524 706 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.1 34.3 34.2 34.1 33.4 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 76.0 74.8 73.6 72.5 70.7 69.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 19 30 12 8 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -26. -30. -33. -36. -39. -41. -44. -47. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -24. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -19. -35. -52. -61. -67. -70. -72. -72. -73. -75. -75. -75. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.9 77.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 56.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 494.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 57 52 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 60 55 49 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 50 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT