* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 46 45 42 43 41 43 48 52 51 50 46 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 46 45 42 43 41 43 48 52 51 50 46 48 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 45 43 38 34 31 30 31 34 36 36 37 37 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 39 36 37 33 37 29 21 10 16 23 35 42 51 60 50 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 7 6 5 0 7 4 5 3 3 4 9 5 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 6 7 5 12 19 24 37 16 14 270 230 227 229 237 226 224 205 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.8 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.8 25.4 23.1 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 158 160 158 153 145 144 147 134 130 125 123 110 95 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 131 136 136 132 124 122 123 114 111 107 106 95 83 69 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 47 50 53 58 56 56 52 50 47 46 40 34 28 21 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 18 18 16 19 17 16 17 19 18 20 20 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 18 5 17 68 110 121 121 103 88 60 58 96 172 168 190 200 MB DIV 32 35 20 26 52 1 29 20 25 22 56 34 44 29 24 31 23 700-850 TADV -2 -4 1 5 7 0 8 -1 1 8 9 8 8 6 -22 -61 -46 LAND (KM) 723 689 656 656 656 725 811 933 1048 1050 1003 1026 992 870 734 533 270 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.4 25.2 26.2 27.5 28.7 29.8 31.1 32.6 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.8 65.9 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.3 66.5 66.8 66.9 66.4 65.2 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 0 2 5 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 14 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 47 47 47 39 36 37 30 25 13 11 5 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -21. -25. -31. -38. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. 1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -2. -2. 3. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 1. 0. -3. -2. -4. -2. 3. 7. 6. 5. 1. 3. 2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.0 65.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 46 45 42 43 41 43 48 52 51 50 46 48 47 45 18HR AGO 45 44 46 44 43 40 41 39 41 46 50 49 48 44 46 45 43 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 35 36 34 36 41 45 44 43 39 41 40 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 32 30 32 37 41 40 39 35 37 36 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT