* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 32 33 32 35 33 35 34 41 43 49 51 52 49 41 36 V (KT) LAND 35 32 32 33 32 35 33 35 34 41 43 49 51 52 49 41 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 30 27 25 23 20 18 17 16 17 19 21 25 28 29 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 47 45 39 33 39 35 34 16 14 13 21 31 45 53 56 68 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 9 3 0 4 5 4 4 4 9 4 7 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 3 5 7 2 3 18 26 10 352 280 251 239 237 234 239 232 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.5 27.5 27.5 26.9 26.6 25.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 157 157 159 157 147 145 148 142 129 130 124 121 111 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 134 132 131 136 135 126 122 124 119 110 111 106 104 95 87 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 9 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 41 43 47 51 53 58 54 52 47 42 44 44 39 34 30 24 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 21 19 20 19 21 20 22 22 25 28 33 36 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 20 19 4 55 83 128 124 138 139 117 117 138 147 205 211 200 MB DIV -7 30 38 21 28 17 2 23 13 4 44 48 42 27 25 30 20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 4 8 8 6 7 4 4 2 8 8 -4 -10 -42 -29 LAND (KM) 766 728 689 678 667 703 777 892 992 1063 985 974 1037 1020 943 877 790 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.9 25.8 27.1 28.2 29.2 30.4 31.6 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.8 66.0 66.2 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.2 66.4 64.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 1 1 4 6 6 5 6 6 8 11 12 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 42 44 45 40 36 38 36 30 21 10 9 4 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -13. -16. -17. -20. -22. -26. -34. -41. -49. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. 2. 4. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. -2. -0. -1. 6. 8. 14. 16. 17. 14. 6. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.4 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 32 33 32 35 33 35 34 41 43 49 51 52 49 41 36 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 34 37 35 37 36 43 45 51 53 54 51 43 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 34 32 34 33 40 42 48 50 51 48 40 35 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 27 25 27 26 33 35 41 43 44 41 33 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT