* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 75 69 62 50 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 83 75 69 62 50 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 76 70 65 56 43 33 29 28 26 25 24 25 26 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 33 37 42 40 42 41 N/A 36 38 N/A 32 24 35 33 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 4 5 3 18 13 N/A 3 4 N/A 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 235 239 228 238 246 240 240 240 N/A 252 252 N/A 242 230 235 242 259 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.2 27.1 27.9 27.5 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 115 113 115 124 134 129 144 147 153 155 156 156 156 155 156 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 99 97 98 104 111 108 122 124 130 131 132 132 130 129 130 131 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -51.5 N/A -53.3 -53.5 N/A -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.5 N/A 0.2 0.2 N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 0 2 1 2 N/A 6 7 N/A 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 53 46 39 35 24 16 15 N/A 20 24 N/A 32 34 34 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 33 33 31 28 20 15 LOST 19 20 LOST 21 25 27 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 60 69 70 71 72 119 91 89 N/A 93 60 N/A 17 17 4 -11 -20 200 MB DIV 90 105 99 84 84 52 -47 -44 N/A -3 5 N/A -6 -1 -7 -30 -13 700-850 TADV 20 3 -8 -9 -8 -38 -28 -21 N/A -8 -3 N/A -3 0 -5 -9 -18 LAND (KM) 48 41 19 61 83 188 336 495 612 549 482 435 402 385 356 338 309 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.3 33.0 33.4 33.7 33.4 32.3 30.8 29.4 28.2 27.2 26.4 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.6 79.9 79.2 78.1 77.1 75.3 74.4 74.1 74.3 74.7 75.2 75.7 76.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 1 9 28 18 36 33 43 54 65 79 81 80 79 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -28. -29. -30. -31. -33. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -24. -29. -30. -31. -30. -28. -28. -26. -22. -21. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -19. -29. -30. -28. -28. -28. -27. -22. -20. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -21. -28. -40. -61. -75. -76. -70. -66. -61. -58. -50. -47. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.6 80.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 561.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 5( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 83 75 69 62 50 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 81 75 68 56 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 73 61 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 73 61 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 59 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 83 74 68 65 56 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT