* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 79 73 68 57 39 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 84 79 73 68 57 39 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 77 72 67 59 48 36 28 24 21 19 17 16 16 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 31 28 31 36 43 45 45 36 39 41 35 32 25 34 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 2 3 -2 13 16 11 3 3 2 1 1 -6 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 222 242 240 228 232 250 242 242 254 228 234 247 245 254 241 255 269 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.6 26.6 28.2 27.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 121 120 119 138 133 148 149 150 156 157 158 157 158 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 103 102 100 113 111 126 127 129 132 132 132 130 131 132 132 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.1 -51.2 -52.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 4 2 0 1 1 3 4 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 59 54 49 39 30 18 12 10 10 13 16 19 22 26 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 35 34 33 26 19 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 74 75 69 89 104 73 63 57 41 19 10 5 18 -4 -17 200 MB DIV 73 83 116 111 93 65 -15 -39 -29 -2 -13 -14 -19 -10 -13 -32 -55 700-850 TADV 12 22 7 -7 -15 -23 -40 -36 -22 -10 4 3 10 3 -5 -4 -15 LAND (KM) 87 90 50 63 60 149 283 457 566 453 382 338 301 272 252 222 202 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.5 32.3 32.9 33.4 33.5 32.6 30.9 29.3 27.8 26.8 26.3 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.6 80.1 79.7 78.7 77.8 76.0 74.9 74.7 74.9 75.6 76.2 76.7 77.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 8 6 7 8 8 7 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 4 1 2 34 19 27 35 41 46 48 49 50 51 51 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -22. -27. -29. -31. -30. -29. -29. -27. -24. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -14. -25. -33. -35. -36. -37. -37. -36. -35. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -22. -33. -51. -70. -78. -77. -74. -70. -66. -62. -58. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.7 80.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 7( 18) 3( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 84 79 73 68 57 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 84 78 73 62 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 75 64 46 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 64 46 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 84 75 69 66 60 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT