* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 98 93 87 72 57 40 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 102 98 93 87 72 57 40 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 100 94 87 80 68 58 47 36 28 23 21 19 19 18 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 25 30 30 41 43 45 43 39 37 34 29 32 24 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 1 2 12 12 9 4 4 1 -1 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 237 210 219 237 243 233 252 232 234 238 233 229 227 220 225 229 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.2 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.5 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 139 131 127 120 117 135 137 143 148 147 147 150 148 150 150 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 120 111 107 101 98 112 114 119 124 124 124 125 122 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -51.5 -52.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 2 3 0 1 1 3 4 7 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 67 62 56 51 38 31 23 18 20 26 35 40 42 42 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 38 39 38 38 35 32 26 19 15 12 11 10 10 8 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 68 56 55 77 68 84 100 74 79 116 104 47 46 26 18 -10 200 MB DIV 73 70 68 66 94 77 52 -4 -38 -28 10 1 -4 2 3 -10 -30 700-850 TADV 18 14 16 26 12 -12 -19 -34 -21 -16 -5 0 -1 1 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 47 76 89 78 46 64 141 302 428 524 486 386 326 297 277 248 229 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.9 30.8 31.5 32.2 33.0 32.9 32.1 31.1 29.9 28.8 27.8 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.5 80.6 80.3 80.0 78.6 77.1 75.6 74.9 75.1 75.6 76.3 76.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 18 12 4 1 19 26 25 31 37 39 42 41 42 43 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -29. -36. -42. -46. -48. -50. -53. -54. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -14. -21. -27. -28. -29. -27. -24. -22. -19. -16. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -15. -26. -33. -39. -41. -42. -41. -42. -41. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -33. -48. -65. -81. -88. -90. -88. -85. -81. -79. -77. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 28.9 80.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 21( 42) 10( 48) 4( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 102 98 93 87 72 57 40 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 100 95 89 74 59 42 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 96 90 75 60 43 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 89 74 59 42 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 71 56 39 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 102 93 87 84 76 61 44 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 102 98 89 83 79 64 47 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS