* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 74 72 68 61 57 53 47 42 45 45 51 54 58 63 65 V (KT) LAND 75 76 74 72 68 61 57 53 47 42 45 45 51 54 58 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 79 77 73 67 62 55 46 39 35 33 35 40 47 58 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 31 35 33 40 45 47 40 38 25 13 7 17 17 25 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -9 -6 -3 0 0 2 5 3 2 -1 -2 -4 -6 3 11 SHEAR DIR 343 345 346 347 344 340 358 8 19 12 12 347 296 262 232 227 225 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 132 134 135 138 140 143 143 141 141 146 140 131 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 109 109 110 112 114 116 118 120 118 118 123 117 107 103 101 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 56 53 51 50 44 44 47 51 55 61 67 72 73 74 64 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 14 16 17 19 19 18 21 20 21 22 24 30 36 850 MB ENV VOR -93 -66 -53 -35 -22 5 15 12 24 30 55 57 49 39 74 110 165 200 MB DIV -10 -31 -44 -20 10 -2 13 -26 22 15 13 16 33 59 99 74 52 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 -3 -1 0 1 -1 4 0 0 9 3 15 12 LAND (KM) 986 1012 1039 1031 1024 991 961 938 922 928 958 1013 1065 972 915 886 855 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.4 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.1 65.1 65.0 65.0 65.1 65.4 65.9 66.4 66.9 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 18 17 18 20 22 26 29 33 35 31 29 21 13 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -22. -26. -30. -31. -30. -27. -23. -20. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. 5. 3. 4. 5. 6. 12. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -18. -22. -28. -33. -30. -30. -24. -21. -17. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 27.4 65.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 11.8% 9.2% 8.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 8.2% 6.0% 5.3% 2.9% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 7.0% 5.1% 4.6% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 74 72 68 61 57 53 47 42 45 45 51 54 58 63 65 18HR AGO 75 74 72 70 66 59 55 51 45 40 43 43 49 52 56 61 63 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 65 58 54 50 44 39 42 42 48 51 55 60 62 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 54 50 46 40 35 38 38 44 47 51 56 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT