* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 121 120 119 112 104 94 80 68 55 51 47 50 49 52 49 V (KT) LAND 115 119 121 120 119 112 104 94 80 68 55 51 47 50 49 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 121 120 116 104 91 81 70 59 50 44 40 39 38 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 9 7 20 19 28 29 32 35 35 36 35 31 35 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 -3 -1 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 317 344 275 261 258 229 237 235 252 244 250 250 251 240 230 225 257 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.4 28.4 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 164 162 155 141 141 147 139 136 144 147 149 153 155 157 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 147 143 135 120 118 122 115 112 119 121 124 128 132 135 143 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 6 5 3 4 0 2 2 5 6 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 69 70 66 59 46 38 34 36 44 49 51 49 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 34 33 34 35 34 30 26 21 16 14 11 12 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 49 71 70 56 55 70 59 69 53 82 82 100 97 101 76 63 -20 200 MB DIV 42 56 44 39 35 54 86 83 42 18 -6 -17 5 37 15 11 -29 700-850 TADV 13 12 4 12 15 18 9 -6 -4 -13 -3 0 -5 1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 282 203 110 59 41 74 156 176 250 368 470 543 542 459 361 233 122 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.5 26.3 27.2 28.0 29.7 31.0 31.8 31.9 31.3 30.6 29.8 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.4 78.2 79.0 79.6 80.1 80.4 79.7 78.2 76.8 75.6 74.9 74.9 75.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 60 57 50 46 33 26 29 33 33 21 27 32 39 44 44 48 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -23. -32. -41. -47. -50. -53. -57. -58. -59. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -0. 1. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -9. -17. -25. -28. -32. -31. -33. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 4. -3. -11. -21. -35. -47. -60. -64. -68. -65. -66. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.6 77.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 16.4% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 28.6% 19.9% 19.1% 13.5% 10.9% 3.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 30.9% 35.9% 11.5% 8.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.4% 27.0% 14.5% 9.2% 5.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 34( 54) 33( 69) 30( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 49 57( 78) 29( 84) 3( 85) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 119 121 120 119 112 104 94 80 68 55 51 47 50 49 52 49 18HR AGO 115 114 116 115 114 107 99 89 75 63 50 46 42 45 44 47 44 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 109 102 94 84 70 58 45 41 37 40 39 42 39 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 97 89 79 65 53 40 36 32 35 34 37 34 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 89 81 71 57 45 32 28 24 27 26 29 26 IN 6HR 115 119 110 104 101 95 87 77 63 51 38 34 30 33 32 35 32 IN 12HR 115 119 121 112 106 102 94 84 70 58 45 41 37 40 39 42 39