* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 61 59 55 55 53 50 41 35 31 31 31 30 31 30 V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 61 59 55 55 53 50 41 35 31 31 31 30 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 65 63 60 58 55 48 39 32 28 25 25 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 26 25 25 37 37 44 45 47 34 31 14 19 34 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -9 -4 -4 -1 0 4 -4 -5 -1 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 356 359 360 359 350 354 341 353 1 27 24 13 2 284 275 285 278 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.2 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 139 135 133 131 133 135 135 133 133 132 134 133 126 124 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 119 114 110 108 110 112 112 111 111 112 113 113 107 106 104 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 8 8 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 58 60 58 49 44 44 43 44 48 53 50 53 57 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 13 15 16 18 15 13 11 11 10 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -104 -106 -88 -62 -33 -8 -16 -6 -26 -4 12 8 -8 -18 -30 -17 200 MB DIV -16 -13 -8 -1 -12 -2 -16 -14 -27 -37 -23 -10 -22 0 11 37 7 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 1 -4 -6 -13 -5 -8 -7 -1 3 4 11 19 LAND (KM) 829 882 940 971 995 1024 1020 993 980 1008 1053 1156 1218 1253 1309 1351 1412 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.5 28.1 29.1 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.9 64.4 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.1 64.7 64.3 64.4 64.8 65.1 65.0 64.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 2 1 2 1 1 3 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 32 23 20 21 17 16 19 19 17 16 13 14 19 9 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -16. -22. -27. -29. -30. -28. -27. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -5. -7. -10. -19. -25. -29. -29. -29. -30. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.7 63.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 14.2% 10.2% 8.6% 7.3% 8.9% 6.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 8.7% 4.9% 3.4% 1.9% 4.6% 2.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.1% 5.1% 4.0% 3.1% 4.5% 3.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 62 61 59 55 55 53 50 41 35 31 31 31 30 31 30 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 56 52 52 50 47 38 32 28 28 28 27 28 27 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 53 49 49 47 44 35 29 25 25 25 24 25 24 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 44 44 42 39 30 24 20 20 20 19 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT