* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 44 43 44 44 43 38 29 25 23 23 19 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 44 43 44 44 43 38 29 25 23 23 19 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 40 39 34 28 22 19 18 18 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 25 25 27 28 26 32 40 49 47 48 35 21 25 45 52 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -1 1 0 -5 -3 -5 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 353 357 357 356 355 355 344 336 346 3 15 15 7 293 293 279 275 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 146 137 132 135 139 140 140 139 141 139 130 126 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 126 117 110 112 117 116 115 115 118 115 107 104 103 103 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 53 56 57 58 58 55 52 48 49 49 57 62 56 47 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 10 10 12 13 16 16 13 12 11 11 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -98 -94 -104 -101 -67 -17 -5 -10 -14 -37 -28 -16 -3 8 0 -6 200 MB DIV -38 -26 -15 -3 0 -17 9 -2 -26 -36 -52 -22 7 -2 -10 24 15 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -3 1 1 1 -2 -2 -7 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 778 816 864 912 965 1034 1081 1086 1094 1125 1178 1251 1322 1292 1303 1330 1348 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.6 29.4 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.1 63.8 64.2 64.7 64.9 64.3 63.5 62.8 62.5 62.5 62.9 63.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 5 3 3 4 2 2 3 5 5 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 48 39 29 19 15 16 19 21 22 21 20 20 16 10 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -24. -31. -34. -35. -36. -40. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 3. 2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -20. -22. -22. -26. -30. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.7 62.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 10.7% 7.5% 6.7% 6.0% 7.8% 6.1% 4.3% Logistic: 1.7% 6.5% 4.0% 4.2% 3.1% 5.2% 2.3% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 44 44 43 44 44 43 38 29 25 23 23 19 15 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 42 43 43 42 37 28 24 22 22 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 39 40 40 39 34 25 21 19 19 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 35 35 34 29 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT