* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 113 110 109 109 109 110 103 96 86 79 77 67 52 39 V (KT) LAND 120 130 127 126 124 122 123 122 123 116 109 99 92 90 69 53 38 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 117 113 112 114 116 113 106 93 77 63 53 44 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 12 10 7 7 12 22 23 31 50 61 67 74 98 91 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 4 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 6 4 -12 -6 -14 -6 SHEAR DIR 332 335 350 356 348 292 256 254 240 240 226 230 214 197 200 204 217 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.2 29.3 28.2 26.0 26.1 20.0 16.1 15.7 12.0 5.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 165 167 171 170 164 155 157 141 117 118 81 72 73 69 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 151 152 158 155 146 135 135 123 103 103 74 68 69 67 65 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -51.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.3 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 73 73 72 73 74 72 63 58 49 38 37 43 49 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 25 24 27 30 33 37 36 35 32 34 39 38 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 70 53 43 50 53 38 63 34 38 60 89 120 95 130 148 131 128 200 MB DIV 108 64 44 63 77 37 47 65 79 106 88 33 55 83 80 87 85 700-850 TADV 16 19 11 8 4 5 6 18 19 7 -18 -71 -83 -70 -112 -92 -124 LAND (KM) -2 42 114 157 213 306 144 114 181 124 31 215 140 158 0 10 5 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.4 23.1 24.8 26.7 28.5 30.4 32.4 35.1 38.1 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.5 74.8 75.3 75.9 77.3 78.6 79.5 79.5 78.3 76.0 72.6 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 10 14 18 19 16 16 19 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 83 99 106 88 69 66 53 36 46 16 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -9. -18. -26. -34. -41. -47. -55. -64. -70. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -7. -8. -8. -4. -1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -2. -0. 2. 6. 10. 9. 7. 3. 4. 9. 7. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -17. -24. -34. -41. -43. -53. -68. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 20.1 74.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 89.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.55 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 14.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 5.9% 2.8% 4.4% 4.9% 4.0% 2.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 8.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 9.5% 5.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 41( 41) 36( 62) 34( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 94( 94) 88( 99) 63(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 130 127 126 124 122 123 122 123 116 109 99 92 90 69 53 38 18HR AGO 120 119 116 115 113 111 112 111 112 105 98 88 81 79 58 42 27 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 113 111 112 111 112 105 98 88 81 79 58 42 27 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 108 106 107 106 107 100 93 83 76 74 53 37 22 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 99 100 99 100 93 86 76 69 67 46 30 15 IN 6HR 120 130 121 115 112 110 111 110 111 104 97 87 80 78 57 41 26 IN 12HR 120 130 127 118 112 108 109 108 109 102 95 85 78 76 55 39 24