* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 126 122 118 113 112 113 110 105 98 90 82 86 72 61 47 V (KT) LAND 125 126 124 120 116 112 110 111 108 104 97 88 80 84 70 60 43 V (KT) LGEM 125 122 105 111 109 111 118 119 109 99 83 69 60 56 43 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 11 13 8 9 13 15 27 23 24 39 69 70 64 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 9 6 3 -3 -1 -1 0 1 0 5 8 6 6 11 16 SHEAR DIR 286 6 330 332 340 297 292 237 241 236 238 247 247 236 222 220 219 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.2 29.1 27.3 26.1 26.0 22.6 16.0 15.8 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 160 162 168 168 168 160 155 153 128 116 117 93 73 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 157 149 150 155 154 151 141 134 131 110 101 102 83 69 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -49.8 -49.2 -49.0 -49.8 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 72 75 76 75 78 76 72 64 46 32 16 21 24 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 24 24 26 30 35 36 38 39 36 34 43 38 36 32 850 MB ENV VOR 88 86 76 59 53 72 62 59 44 51 61 110 120 159 58 27 9 200 MB DIV 145 147 98 46 55 88 56 92 100 78 113 67 48 14 -15 0 23 700-850 TADV 11 15 12 11 10 1 2 13 28 24 19 -6 -38 -77 -178 -140 -114 LAND (KM) 0 73 11 67 137 279 277 148 137 180 85 12 203 208 142 22 67 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.9 25.6 27.4 29.1 31.0 32.9 34.8 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.3 74.4 74.7 75.0 76.1 77.4 78.7 79.4 79.4 78.4 76.3 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 12 15 18 19 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 86 87 85 107 96 61 61 49 38 45 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -10. -20. -28. -36. -44. -50. -56. -64. -71. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 4. 0. 10. 3. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -3. -7. -12. -13. -12. -15. -20. -27. -35. -43. -39. -53. -64. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.5 74.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.57 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 9.3% 4.4% 5.9% 5.1% 4.0% 3.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 5.1% 5.4% 2.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 10.2% 6.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 36( 36) 31( 56) 30( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 84( 84) 89( 98) 83(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 126 124 120 116 112 110 111 108 104 97 88 80 84 70 60 43 18HR AGO 125 124 122 118 114 110 108 109 106 102 95 86 78 82 68 58 41 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 113 109 107 108 105 101 94 85 77 81 67 57 40 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 111 107 105 106 103 99 92 83 75 79 65 55 38 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 102 100 101 98 94 87 78 70 74 60 50 33 IN 6HR 125 126 117 111 108 105 103 104 101 97 90 81 73 77 63 53 36 IN 12HR 125 126 124 115 109 105 103 104 101 97 90 81 73 77 63 53 36