* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 127 126 121 114 113 115 112 112 106 98 87 89 92 80 58 V (KT) LAND 125 113 126 124 115 109 107 110 107 107 101 93 82 84 87 75 52 V (KT) LGEM 125 125 123 118 109 109 115 117 111 102 93 80 69 66 60 43 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 8 8 13 10 6 13 15 21 20 28 49 64 59 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 9 8 10 2 -1 -2 2 -1 2 0 10 11 -4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 325 305 350 10 342 338 296 302 276 243 249 249 266 245 242 228 221 SST (C) 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.2 29.4 28.5 27.4 27.3 25.2 20.1 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 167 169 162 162 169 170 167 160 154 158 144 130 130 109 82 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 158 159 150 149 155 154 149 140 133 134 123 112 112 95 74 67 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -48.9 -49.2 -49.3 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 73 74 76 74 79 76 76 68 61 44 22 14 16 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 29 27 28 32 36 36 40 40 37 33 38 45 40 29 850 MB ENV VOR 93 93 94 90 71 69 60 75 54 58 48 105 117 151 28 12 94 200 MB DIV 132 149 168 94 56 92 71 69 73 87 91 117 16 0 -19 -2 -1 700-850 TADV 9 10 14 15 12 9 1 3 21 24 29 11 -6 -23 -90 -137 -98 LAND (KM) 91 3 59 8 22 160 261 214 129 146 222 148 73 212 337 233 82 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.8 22.5 24.1 25.8 27.4 29.1 30.8 32.4 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.5 74.4 74.6 74.8 75.7 76.8 78.0 78.9 79.3 79.0 78.0 76.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 10 13 15 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 74 85 91 87 105 80 65 62 49 38 52 20 11 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -2. -10. -19. -27. -35. -41. -45. -50. -56. -61. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -3. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 5. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. 1. 5. 5. 10. 8. 4. -2. 4. 11. 4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -12. -10. -13. -12. -19. -27. -38. -36. -33. -45. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.4 74.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.55 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.69 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 17.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 15.4% 7.4% 9.2% 7.4% 4.0% 3.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 8.0% 18.3% 9.0% 5.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 11.2% 17.0% 9.6% 5.1% 3.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 40( 63) 31( 74) 28( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 69 90( 97) 97(100) 92(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 113 126 124 115 109 107 110 107 107 101 93 82 84 87 75 52 18HR AGO 125 124 137 135 126 120 118 121 118 118 112 104 93 95 98 86 63 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 110 104 102 105 102 102 96 88 77 79 82 70 47 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 106 100 98 101 98 98 92 84 73 75 78 66 43 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 100 98 101 98 98 92 84 73 75 78 66 43 IN 6HR 125 113 104 98 95 92 90 93 90 90 84 76 65 67 70 58 35 IN 12HR 125 113 126 117 111 107 105 108 105 105 99 91 80 82 85 73 50