* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 116 119 120 117 110 110 114 118 119 122 117 110 98 101 92 V (KT) LAND 115 114 116 119 120 117 101 101 105 109 110 112 108 101 89 91 83 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 112 113 114 111 98 100 105 106 100 94 87 77 71 67 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 5 3 7 8 14 14 11 16 12 21 19 24 13 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 5 10 12 7 0 1 0 3 3 2 2 9 17 9 SHEAR DIR 278 293 342 355 324 339 325 327 305 298 278 253 259 276 297 258 234 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.2 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 161 167 171 165 163 167 167 159 159 159 141 137 136 130 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 152 159 165 154 150 152 149 140 138 136 119 115 114 108 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.6 -49.2 -49.4 -48.7 -48.5 -48.2 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 72 72 74 77 77 75 76 72 69 61 51 35 22 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 31 32 32 31 29 31 35 39 41 44 45 45 41 46 42 850 MB ENV VOR 102 110 114 119 108 118 100 102 97 97 85 96 93 112 153 153 51 200 MB DIV 106 125 134 74 86 144 69 103 48 70 64 86 77 63 33 -17 -17 700-850 TADV 7 11 8 9 10 20 15 17 6 18 27 19 20 26 31 18 -70 LAND (KM) 347 281 219 151 70 39 61 210 361 380 352 400 398 318 238 258 355 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 19.5 21.2 22.9 24.6 26.1 27.6 29.1 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 74.9 74.8 75.0 75.4 75.8 76.3 76.6 76.6 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 56 78 97 90 91 88 111 76 60 55 54 57 29 20 18 17 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -6. -14. -19. -25. -29. -32. -36. -41. -45. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 2. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 16. 9. 14. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 4. 5. 2. -5. -5. -1. 3. 4. 7. 2. -5. -17. -14. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.9 75.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.51 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.1% 11.2% 9.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 8.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 3.6% 4.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.6% 5.2% 4.6% 3.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 33( 68) 32( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 80 90( 98) 81(100) 94(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 116 119 120 117 101 101 105 109 110 112 108 101 89 91 83 18HR AGO 115 114 116 119 120 117 101 101 105 109 110 112 108 101 89 91 83 12HR AGO 115 112 111 114 115 112 96 96 100 104 105 107 103 96 84 86 78 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 106 103 87 87 91 95 96 98 94 87 75 77 69 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 77 77 81 85 86 88 84 77 65 67 59 IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 93 77 77 81 85 86 88 84 77 65 67 59 IN 12HR 115 114 116 107 101 97 81 81 85 89 90 92 88 81 69 71 63