* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 124 128 128 126 119 114 117 117 120 121 117 112 110 106 104 V (KT) LAND 125 124 124 128 128 126 99 104 107 108 110 112 107 103 101 97 95 V (KT) LGEM 125 123 121 119 119 119 96 106 110 111 110 105 94 84 80 73 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 0 3 6 7 9 10 12 14 14 19 18 31 54 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 6 9 4 11 9 6 -1 2 -4 0 1 3 14 7 -3 SHEAR DIR 257 246 265 215 46 335 342 330 313 306 262 249 249 257 253 255 250 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.2 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.6 28.8 28.0 28.3 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 157 163 171 165 167 167 169 165 161 147 135 140 135 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 144 149 154 163 154 152 150 149 144 138 124 114 117 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -49.9 -49.5 -49.6 -48.4 -48.1 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 8 7 5 5 3 4 0 1 700-500 MB RH 73 71 73 72 72 71 75 76 76 74 69 65 58 52 38 22 9 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 29 29 29 28 28 32 35 38 42 42 43 47 48 54 850 MB ENV VOR 104 99 108 113 118 109 114 93 112 91 97 83 76 95 148 187 41 200 MB DIV 104 93 111 139 147 141 84 63 95 68 68 89 86 61 47 14 -24 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 6 4 17 18 7 9 6 16 17 10 10 -9 -21 -84 LAND (KM) 377 324 261 194 133 61 -2 161 314 416 364 392 423 333 259 252 286 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.8 20.6 22.4 24.0 25.6 27.2 28.8 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.0 74.8 74.9 75.2 75.6 76.0 76.4 76.6 76.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 55 64 69 73 94 94 95 64 62 59 63 40 21 22 19 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -20. -27. -34. -39. -42. -46. -51. -56. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 14. 16. 17. 14. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 16. 15. 16. 19. 19. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 3. 3. 1. -6. -11. -8. -8. -5. -4. -8. -13. -15. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.5 75.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.7% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 36( 60) 43( 77) 40( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 91 77( 98) 92(100) 90(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 124 128 128 126 99 104 107 108 110 112 107 103 101 97 95 18HR AGO 125 124 124 128 128 126 99 104 107 108 110 112 107 103 101 97 95 12HR AGO 125 122 121 125 125 123 96 101 104 105 107 109 104 100 98 94 92 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 113 86 91 94 95 97 99 94 90 88 84 82 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 104 77 82 85 86 88 90 85 81 79 75 73 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 103 76 81 84 85 87 89 84 80 78 74 72 IN 12HR 125 124 124 115 109 105 78 83 86 87 89 91 86 82 80 76 74