* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 122 121 123 122 116 110 110 111 113 112 113 110 106 100 98 V (KT) LAND 125 123 122 121 123 122 100 101 101 102 104 103 104 101 97 91 89 V (KT) LGEM 125 120 117 115 115 115 98 103 106 109 108 105 99 90 84 74 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 7 4 3 8 9 8 12 8 17 16 23 27 40 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 3 5 4 8 4 1 -1 -2 1 0 3 7 11 4 SHEAR DIR 265 238 236 238 211 261 14 336 318 276 263 259 232 248 244 232 226 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.2 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.3 29.1 24.7 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 155 159 171 165 167 167 169 165 163 152 141 155 105 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 143 147 150 164 154 154 151 150 144 139 128 120 133 92 75 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -49.8 -49.0 -48.2 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 5 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 72 73 71 73 75 78 76 75 69 68 56 47 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 26 28 30 28 27 29 32 34 35 40 43 44 44 49 850 MB ENV VOR 100 105 100 109 110 111 109 104 102 84 91 82 93 62 124 173 232 200 MB DIV 113 85 81 101 116 127 121 76 89 62 80 86 98 99 72 51 32 700-850 TADV 3 5 6 5 6 8 13 8 12 6 8 22 16 14 0 -44 -39 LAND (KM) 349 358 296 231 169 24 -19 137 306 437 383 396 412 303 154 84 80 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.4 20.3 22.1 23.8 25.5 27.1 28.6 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.9 75.0 75.0 74.9 74.7 74.8 75.0 75.4 75.8 76.2 76.5 76.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 9 13 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 42 53 60 68 70 90 84 100 67 63 59 64 48 35 35 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -11. -20. -27. -34. -39. -42. -46. -51. -54. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 14. 16. 16. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 12. 15. 14. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -9. -15. -15. -14. -12. -13. -12. -15. -19. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.3 74.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 12.2% 5.8% 4.5% 4.4% 2.3% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.7% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 34( 59) 35( 73) 34( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 96 86( 99) 88(100) 83(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 123 122 121 123 122 100 101 101 102 104 103 104 101 97 91 89 18HR AGO 125 124 123 122 124 123 101 102 102 103 105 104 105 102 98 92 90 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 122 121 99 100 100 101 103 102 103 100 96 90 88 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 117 116 94 95 95 96 98 97 98 95 91 85 83 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 105 83 84 84 85 87 86 87 84 80 74 72 IN 6HR 125 123 114 108 105 104 82 83 83 84 86 85 86 83 79 73 71 IN 12HR 125 123 122 113 107 103 81 82 82 83 85 84 85 82 78 72 70