* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 139 135 128 121 116 118 122 121 113 108 107 112 115 115 109 104 V (KT) LAND 135 139 135 128 121 116 118 122 121 78 82 81 85 88 89 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 135 141 137 129 122 114 117 123 126 83 96 103 107 108 104 96 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 10 8 3 4 3 7 6 10 10 12 5 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 7 5 5 2 2 0 0 6 4 4 4 4 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 249 247 250 247 254 262 340 238 303 270 291 312 307 329 325 313 317 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 30.0 30.6 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 155 157 159 169 171 171 169 166 167 163 163 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 148 147 147 149 151 159 171 161 153 147 144 139 138 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.0 -49.0 -49.4 -49.2 -49.4 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 66 71 73 75 77 76 74 74 75 77 76 76 76 73 67 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 24 23 27 29 34 35 32 35 37 41 44 46 45 43 850 MB ENV VOR 86 91 105 112 119 109 115 108 125 134 162 155 169 124 129 111 112 200 MB DIV 52 74 86 97 99 118 129 125 92 84 86 81 89 46 57 37 30 700-850 TADV 11 9 8 6 8 7 5 7 9 19 10 18 11 11 11 9 6 LAND (KM) 105 144 199 256 289 364 207 40 89 -10 169 312 416 410 402 409 435 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.5 19.1 21.0 22.7 24.2 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.6 73.3 73.8 74.3 75.1 75.7 76.0 76.1 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 6 4 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 32 34 36 47 64 70 80 72 66 61 63 62 63 58 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -16. -27. -34. -41. -46. -49. -52. -57. -60. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -12. -13. -13. -7. -1. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. 2. 3. -0. -2. -7. -9. -6. -4. -2. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 5. 10. 12. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. -0. -7. -14. -19. -17. -13. -14. -22. -27. -28. -23. -20. -20. -26. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 13.4 72.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 29.9% 22.5% 13.3% 7.1% 2.4% 4.6% 5.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 7.5% 4.4% 2.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.8% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 48( 73) 34( 82) 31( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 20 31( 45) 85( 92) 94(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 139 135 128 121 116 118 122 121 78 82 81 85 88 89 82 78 18HR AGO 135 134 130 123 116 111 113 117 116 73 77 76 80 83 84 77 73 12HR AGO 135 132 131 124 117 112 114 118 117 74 78 77 81 84 85 78 74 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 118 113 115 119 118 75 79 78 82 85 86 79 75 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 111 113 117 116 73 77 76 80 83 84 77 73 IN 6HR 135 139 130 124 121 119 121 125 124 81 85 84 88 91 92 85 81 IN 12HR 135 139 135 126 120 116 118 122 121 78 82 81 85 88 89 82 78