* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 49 51 56 59 64 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 -7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 277 282 285 287 287 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.0 26.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 131 134 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 46 44 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 6 10 14 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -14 -13 -12 -28 -7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 6 8 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1431 1333 1235 1123 1012 772 534 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.2 143.1 144.2 145.2 147.5 149.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 5 9 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -18. -34. -51. -64. -74. -79. -81. -82. -84. -91. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -22. -36. -50. -62. -71. -77. -79. -80. -80. -84. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.9 141.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 62.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##