* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 74 76 80 80 82 91 96 96 92 99 100 102 102 101 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 74 76 80 80 82 91 96 96 81 88 89 91 91 89 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 70 71 72 75 79 87 95 100 87 96 101 102 98 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 14 11 12 14 11 8 1 4 9 11 8 13 13 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 5 6 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 10 9 9 6 4 SHEAR DIR 253 253 252 251 231 237 227 248 358 289 254 269 290 300 277 290 265 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.2 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 163 159 155 156 159 163 171 171 166 167 169 162 152 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 165 162 157 153 146 147 150 154 161 163 153 152 152 144 133 118 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -49.9 -49.8 -49.2 -49.1 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 11 10 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 62 65 71 75 75 76 78 79 75 75 70 68 57 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 23 24 24 25 30 33 32 31 37 39 42 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 66 74 87 99 113 105 127 111 132 126 167 157 171 146 133 200 MB DIV 107 69 49 54 74 70 77 107 150 130 80 74 120 88 77 77 49 700-850 TADV 10 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 2 8 12 17 16 22 22 30 26 LAND (KM) 304 238 214 176 156 210 310 309 193 81 11 74 277 454 473 532 353 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 14.4 15.3 16.5 18.0 19.7 21.6 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.1 69.2 70.3 71.0 71.8 73.0 73.8 74.5 75.0 75.2 75.3 75.3 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 7 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 79 99 70 51 39 35 39 52 63 67 65 68 64 60 53 46 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 7. 10. 9. 7. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 15. 17. 26. 31. 31. 27. 34. 35. 37. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.2 68.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 42.7% 29.9% 21.9% 19.1% 19.8% 13.6% 20.8% Logistic: 14.7% 22.9% 14.4% 13.2% 7.5% 9.3% 9.0% 10.8% Bayesian: 3.4% 21.7% 10.3% 2.9% 3.8% 5.7% 6.2% 4.6% Consensus: 13.6% 29.1% 18.2% 12.6% 10.1% 11.6% 9.6% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 7( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 7( 10) 9( 18) 26( 39) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 71 74 76 80 80 82 91 96 96 81 88 89 91 91 89 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 72 76 76 78 87 92 92 77 84 85 87 87 85 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 66 70 70 72 81 86 86 71 78 79 81 81 79 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 61 61 63 72 77 77 62 69 70 72 72 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT