* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 63 66 70 76 79 86 93 93 91 98 104 107 104 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 63 66 70 76 79 86 93 93 68 83 88 91 88 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 62 62 62 64 67 71 78 85 68 84 96 101 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 8 13 17 11 13 7 4 4 7 7 13 9 13 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 9 6 1 1 3 6 1 1 1 3 1 7 11 12 3 SHEAR DIR 239 259 265 245 249 259 246 267 240 39 285 282 256 288 248 237 250 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 166 166 163 158 156 157 161 167 171 171 165 168 166 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 169 169 166 164 157 150 148 148 152 157 166 158 151 153 150 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 11 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 55 56 62 68 71 74 75 73 79 77 74 68 66 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 24 24 24 26 26 27 30 29 28 35 40 44 43 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 55 63 61 78 91 108 111 121 114 122 133 153 174 181 172 200 MB DIV 116 89 85 99 65 62 61 103 97 123 92 106 85 125 83 67 56 700-850 TADV 12 14 13 9 8 6 7 9 6 1 7 21 17 12 16 23 25 LAND (KM) 356 387 368 310 253 188 172 257 345 236 105 89 -5 126 339 527 574 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.9 16.1 17.4 19.0 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.3 66.7 67.9 69.1 70.9 72.1 73.2 74.0 74.8 75.3 75.5 75.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 7 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 72 71 76 99 53 38 38 45 62 64 71 63 72 59 58 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 8. 5. 4. 11. 16. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 21. 24. 31. 38. 38. 36. 43. 49. 52. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 64.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 11.5% 8.3% 8.1% 12.2% 13.5% 18.9% Logistic: 1.7% 6.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 3.9% 7.4% 13.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 2.8% Consensus: 1.1% 9.3% 4.7% 3.3% 3.0% 5.6% 7.5% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 61 63 66 70 76 79 86 93 93 68 83 88 91 88 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 60 63 67 73 76 83 90 90 65 80 85 88 85 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 58 62 68 71 78 85 85 60 75 80 83 80 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 54 60 63 70 77 77 52 67 72 75 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT