* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 73 78 81 87 91 96 96 97 96 102 108 109 107 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 73 78 81 87 91 96 96 97 96 86 92 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 65 69 72 73 77 82 88 95 102 111 98 107 108 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 7 12 11 12 7 2 3 0 7 8 11 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 10 5 2 2 5 3 0 3 2 3 6 12 10 11 SHEAR DIR 238 234 260 255 250 265 241 270 66 330 347 299 244 280 217 246 242 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 171 169 166 165 161 156 156 159 165 171 171 165 168 168 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 171 171 169 166 162 154 147 147 150 156 165 159 152 154 152 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 8 9 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 54 56 60 66 70 74 73 74 76 76 73 67 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 24 25 24 27 28 30 28 29 29 34 40 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 47 58 66 71 93 102 121 124 133 132 145 153 179 171 159 200 MB DIV 133 120 97 112 103 43 78 87 104 113 86 85 79 95 75 52 46 700-850 TADV 4 7 10 6 8 4 5 6 4 1 5 11 16 12 13 18 22 LAND (KM) 356 372 409 395 339 245 181 208 297 292 185 85 0 53 255 495 565 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.1 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.6 18.2 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.8 65.3 66.5 67.8 69.9 71.4 72.5 73.4 74.2 74.8 75.3 75.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 55 82 84 79 81 45 38 41 54 67 73 66 70 70 58 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 7. 7. 6. 12. 18. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 32. 36. 41. 41. 42. 41. 47. 53. 54. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 62.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 39.4% 22.8% 11.5% 8.6% 23.9% 23.2% 28.4% Logistic: 4.8% 15.5% 5.6% 4.2% 2.6% 6.3% 10.9% 13.8% Bayesian: 5.2% 21.0% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 6.4% 8.0% 4.4% Consensus: 5.8% 25.3% 11.5% 5.3% 3.7% 12.2% 14.1% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 7( 7) 6( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 69 73 78 81 87 91 96 96 97 96 86 92 93 91 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 68 73 76 82 86 91 91 92 91 81 87 88 86 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 60 65 68 74 78 83 83 84 83 73 79 80 78 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 54 57 63 67 72 72 73 72 62 68 69 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT