* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 38 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 38 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 44 40 36 33 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 18 21 26 31 40 48 51 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 5 3 4 -2 -1 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 241 244 248 250 257 259 271 279 271 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 140 138 130 130 132 135 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 42 42 40 43 43 45 44 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -13 -5 -5 -2 6 -5 -2 -14 -10 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 36 26 17 8 0 -3 -19 -17 -10 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 5 5 5 0 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1787 1761 1736 1687 1640 1521 1379 1218 1032 807 587 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.7 138.8 138.9 139.3 139.6 140.6 141.9 143.4 145.2 147.4 149.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 15 17 19 16 5 5 6 13 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -23. -29. -35. -37. -39. -39. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -22. -30. -38. -46. -53. -59. -62. -62. -61. -59. -59. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 138.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.01 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.36 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##