* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 26 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 29 32 33 36 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 0 3 6 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 234 239 254 256 258 260 263 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.6 25.1 25.1 24.4 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 127 121 117 112 112 105 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 34 35 34 29 27 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 6 5 22 20 12 -6 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -16 -1 12 14 6 -24 -24 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 7 7 10 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 835 760 685 635 588 563 616 649 677 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 22.0 22.7 23.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.5 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.9 117.9 118.9 119.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -22. -29. -35. -38. -39. -40. -42. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -31. -41. -51. -56. -60. -62. -64. -64. -64. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##