* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 44 43 41 39 33 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 44 43 41 39 33 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 40 38 35 31 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 4 4 12 16 26 33 36 41 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 284 305 360 258 276 261 270 263 252 260 278 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 139 138 138 139 139 135 134 136 135 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 43 42 44 48 47 51 51 52 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 0 4 9 0 12 6 14 -5 3 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 70 82 88 83 32 47 8 0 -3 11 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 2 0 2 4 4 4 -2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1751 1746 1742 1746 1751 1742 1701 1640 1553 1428 1275 1101 925 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.4 140.3 140.1 139.8 139.6 139.3 139.4 139.8 140.5 141.6 143.0 144.7 146.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 21 17 13 12 14 18 20 15 10 10 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -13. -17. -22. -22. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. -2. -9. -14. -19. -23. -21. -20. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 140.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.18 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 37.1% 21.7% 15.8% 10.3% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 21.3% 28.6% 12.6% 9.6% 0.9% 0.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 20.0% 17.0% 9.5% 6.6% 5.1% 0.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##