* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 34 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 34 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 38 35 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 24 27 26 33 38 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 0 1 1 0 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 236 240 242 246 263 260 273 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.8 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 134 130 119 114 110 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 38 36 36 37 33 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 11 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 -6 -6 -5 8 12 4 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 -7 -9 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 4 3 7 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1086 1020 955 885 816 693 641 636 585 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.5 21.7 22.7 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.6 118.2 117.8 117.6 117.3 117.2 117.6 118.2 118.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -34. -36. -37. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -19. -28. -41. -50. -54. -57. -59. -61. -61. -61. -62. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 118.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##