* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 39 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 25 29 32 39 39 37 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 1 -1 1 -1 0 3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 231 240 243 247 260 271 266 270 268 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 132 132 124 117 112 107 100 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 39 38 37 37 37 31 30 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 14 14 12 9 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 7 7 0 0 7 20 13 -8 -14 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 -1 -11 -5 1 6 17 0 -28 -18 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 3 6 7 14 13 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1157 1099 1041 967 893 757 679 645 630 627 641 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.0 23.7 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.0 118.6 118.2 117.8 117.3 117.5 117.9 118.5 119.3 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -29. -35. -38. -40. -41. -43. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -34. -45. -54. -61. -64. -65. -66. -66. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 119.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 412.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##