* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 36 38 41 44 45 46 49 52 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 36 38 41 44 45 46 49 52 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 17 13 9 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 292 316 322 332 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 127 128 126 124 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 113 110 109 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 28 28 27 26 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -93 -111 -130 -146 -113 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -36 -28 12 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 15 17 12 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2421 2500 2388 2271 2155 1923 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.2 29.2 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.1 41.8 42.1 42.5 43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 8 10 7 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 19. 22. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.4 40.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.5% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132016 LISA 09/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/25/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 36 38 41 44 45 46 49 52 53 56 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 29 31 34 37 39 42 45 46 47 50 53 54 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 29 32 35 37 40 43 44 45 48 51 52 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 29 31 34 37 38 39 42 45 46 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT