* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 67 63 43 36 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 67 63 43 36 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 66 68 62 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 10 18 26 37 59 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 10 14 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 214 222 236 225 225 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 22.5 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 131 130 98 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 126 126 127 93 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 6 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 53 45 40 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 28 29 30 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 45 69 91 112 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 80 84 69 91 81 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 14 22 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1156 1223 1166 1129 1056 812 1223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 32.4 33.7 35.5 37.2 41.9 46.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.6 62.6 60.7 57.4 54.2 45.4 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 21 27 32 36 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 21 12 6 10 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -11. -18. -24. -28. -33. -38. -42. -48. -52. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 8. -12. -19. -24. -28. -34. -39. -43. -47. -50. -53. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.0 64.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.6% 10.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.2% 6.4% 4.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 7.4% 5.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 66 67 63 43 36 31 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 62 58 38 31 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 55 51 31 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 42 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT