* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 61 67 59 38 46 45 40 36 30 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 61 67 59 38 46 45 40 36 30 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 57 62 55 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 9 9 8 16 32 59 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 6 2 3 17 18 15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 167 178 207 223 223 225 234 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.5 28.0 27.9 26.9 22.5 14.8 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 146 140 140 131 98 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 130 127 131 128 93 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.3 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 59 54 38 42 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 26 26 26 32 28 18 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 12 8 14 56 94 103 190 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 109 68 81 61 102 77 70 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 6 11 14 -28 -30 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1154 1191 1182 1221 1162 1067 823 1345 953 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.3 31.3 32.6 33.8 37.1 42.0 47.8 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.7 64.1 62.3 60.5 54.1 45.1 34.8 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 15 20 25 37 45 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 29 24 23 16 14 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -11. -23. -28. -34. -40. -46. -53. -58. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 2. -11. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 9. -12. -4. -5. -10. -14. -20. -29. -34. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.2 65.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.85 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 19.3% 11.9% 8.3% 8.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 26.2% 15.6% 3.9% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 15.2% 9.2% 4.1% 3.1% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 61 67 59 38 46 45 40 36 30 21 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 64 56 35 43 42 37 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 58 50 29 37 36 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 41 20 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT