* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 33 31 30 26 20 18 17 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 33 31 30 26 20 18 17 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 32 30 26 23 20 19 20 21 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 35 40 43 43 29 24 16 11 7 2 24 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -4 -3 1 2 3 0 -3 3 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 243 240 239 247 263 276 334 4 6 245 203 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.4 22.0 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 116 116 117 119 122 124 122 119 113 92 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 106 105 106 106 108 109 106 106 102 84 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 45 42 39 37 32 32 34 40 42 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 16 14 13 9 7 6 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 10 -2 -15 -52 -89 -134 -115 -91 -90 -92 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 9 -25 -23 -15 -10 -28 -24 -10 2 21 43 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 16 12 13 16 12 12 8 7 -5 2 -19 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1847 1917 1987 2060 2138 2286 2413 2313 2130 1985 1862 1856 1526 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.9 26.5 28.4 30.5 32.8 36.1 40.2 44.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.8 35.5 36.2 36.9 37.7 39.1 40.2 40.6 40.0 38.5 35.8 31.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 12 17 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 5 2 1 2 5 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -14. -20. -22. -23. -20. -22. -26. -27. -27. -26. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 34.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 34 33 31 30 26 20 18 17 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 35 33 32 28 22 20 19 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 32 28 22 20 19 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 27 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT