* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 57 64 73 78 68 46 40 37 33 26 23 23 22 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 57 64 73 78 68 46 40 37 33 26 23 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 53 57 66 74 76 60 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 8 7 7 21 38 55 69 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 3 4 1 7 12 20 22 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 162 152 137 146 209 234 209 222 224 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.0 27.0 26.3 21.1 16.1 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 159 160 157 154 140 130 124 91 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 141 140 136 134 127 123 119 86 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 -0.7 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 57 55 43 34 34 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 21 22 26 29 26 16 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 4 -9 -10 2 1 65 86 68 113 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 17 20 60 71 73 50 84 57 56 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 2 2 1 -5 -61 -71 -27 -124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 909 1000 1087 1189 1196 1240 1174 936 954 1444 994 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.4 28.3 29.3 30.3 32.3 35.0 38.5 42.6 47.2 51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 64.3 64.8 64.7 64.6 62.4 57.4 50.5 42.5 33.6 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 11 19 29 35 38 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 34 34 33 30 24 12 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -3. -12. -24. -29. -35. -41. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 7. -7. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 33. 38. 28. 6. -0. -3. -7. -14. -17. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.4 63.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.9% 12.0% 8.6% 8.0% 11.9% 13.3% 10.4% Logistic: 6.9% 21.0% 14.8% 6.7% 1.6% 9.4% 6.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.5% 3.4% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 14.1% 10.1% 5.3% 3.2% 7.3% 6.7% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 53 57 64 73 78 68 46 40 37 33 26 23 23 22 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 52 59 68 73 63 41 35 32 28 21 18 18 17 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 51 60 65 55 33 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 41 50 55 45 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT