* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 54 61 67 73 78 77 64 37 34 32 33 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 54 61 67 73 78 77 64 37 34 32 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 40 47 52 58 66 73 73 55 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 12 10 10 5 2 12 28 49 70 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 11 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 162 159 113 96 121 95 103 331 238 242 224 215 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 26.4 25.4 21.7 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 163 167 166 153 150 145 142 123 115 92 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 152 152 148 133 130 129 130 114 107 86 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 60 60 62 60 56 45 31 28 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 17 16 16 16 18 20 17 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 32 32 28 0 -5 3 15 45 42 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 34 18 38 30 25 53 36 29 54 49 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 4 2 -1 1 0 3 -47 -100 -194 -123 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 848 804 792 822 871 1019 1212 1381 1313 1233 986 1061 1403 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.1 25.9 27.5 29.2 30.9 33.0 35.6 38.8 42.7 46.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.1 61.4 62.3 63.2 64.1 63.7 62.0 58.6 53.6 47.6 40.9 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 9 10 14 21 27 30 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 46 47 60 62 31 30 33 34 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 8. 2. -8. -22. -27. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 5. -1. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 31. 38. 43. 48. 47. 34. 7. 4. 2. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.5 58.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.9% 12.2% 8.9% 8.8% 12.1% 13.6% 25.9% Logistic: 8.3% 27.5% 20.8% 18.4% 7.3% 26.8% 33.2% 29.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.5% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 3.0% 0.2% Consensus: 5.4% 16.6% 12.1% 9.2% 5.4% 13.5% 16.6% 18.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 47 54 61 67 73 78 77 64 37 34 32 33 33 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 50 57 63 69 74 73 60 33 30 28 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 43 50 56 62 67 66 53 26 23 21 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 39 45 51 56 55 42 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT