* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 39 37 36 32 32 33 33 31 35 34 34 34 33 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 39 37 36 32 32 33 33 31 35 34 34 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 33 31 29 26 24 25 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 28 30 31 39 37 23 6 7 19 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 241 240 250 249 246 243 249 241 227 45 66 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 26.9 26.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 117 118 119 117 119 122 125 128 124 116 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 108 109 110 107 107 109 111 113 109 102 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 53 52 49 42 35 32 28 27 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 20 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 58 44 35 36 31 10 -20 -47 -89 -130 -13 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 84 65 36 29 22 -3 -29 -19 -22 -2 11 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 16 18 18 19 12 9 9 8 3 0 13 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1622 1692 1754 1822 1893 2041 2188 2344 2486 2332 2097 1868 1662 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.6 23.0 24.4 25.9 27.7 30.0 32.7 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.0 33.7 34.4 35.2 36.7 38.2 39.7 41.0 41.9 41.9 41.0 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 11 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 3 5 2 2 5 8 7 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -11. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -19. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 32.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.7% 6.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.5% 2.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 39 39 37 36 32 32 33 33 31 35 34 34 34 33 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 38 36 35 31 31 32 32 30 34 33 33 33 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 33 32 28 28 29 29 27 31 30 30 30 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 27 23 23 24 24 22 26 25 25 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT