* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 58 65 71 76 77 73 52 49 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 58 65 71 76 77 73 52 49 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 57 63 69 71 61 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 7 9 6 7 6 4 20 34 53 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 -3 1 0 4 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 151 135 117 104 67 78 343 312 251 226 217 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.2 26.6 25.6 22.0 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 162 162 163 166 160 155 152 143 125 117 94 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 154 151 151 152 141 135 135 131 116 109 87 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -51.7 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 6 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 60 60 61 63 58 54 43 35 37 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 16 17 16 16 17 19 19 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 30 29 30 6 0 0 8 12 33 75 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 41 26 17 32 21 59 46 58 39 66 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 4 3 3 2 0 0 3 -24 -106 -257 -216 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 875 810 774 786 817 933 1116 1353 1351 1272 1017 1046 1386 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.0 26.6 28.3 30.2 32.4 35.0 38.2 42.1 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.2 60.4 61.3 62.3 63.6 63.6 62.3 59.2 54.4 48.5 41.6 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 13 12 11 9 9 14 20 26 31 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 42 57 47 60 46 29 40 31 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. -2. -12. -16. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 35. 41. 46. 47. 43. 22. 19. 18. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.4 58.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.82 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 15.5% 10.2% 7.3% 6.9% 11.1% 13.5% 32.0% Logistic: 5.4% 24.5% 16.6% 13.6% 6.1% 28.7% 32.3% 50.8% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 2.0% 0.8% Consensus: 3.9% 13.7% 9.4% 7.0% 4.3% 13.7% 15.9% 27.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 49 58 65 71 76 77 73 52 49 47 48 49 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 46 55 62 68 73 74 70 49 46 44 45 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 41 50 57 63 68 69 65 44 41 39 40 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 41 48 54 59 60 56 35 32 30 31 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT