* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 47 43 39 40 35 33 31 30 28 31 34 35 36 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 47 43 39 40 35 33 31 30 28 31 34 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 47 43 41 38 34 31 30 31 33 36 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 21 17 23 31 32 35 27 17 11 13 13 7 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 4 1 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 7 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 241 251 247 246 248 251 252 261 275 346 57 69 193 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.0 27.2 26.8 25.6 25.3 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 118 118 119 118 119 121 125 124 127 123 110 107 102 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 108 108 109 108 108 109 112 111 112 107 94 91 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.9 -55.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 5 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 55 54 51 47 40 34 31 30 37 43 47 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 20 17 15 17 14 12 10 7 6 7 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 74 62 49 46 37 28 7 -27 -66 -113 -36 -16 3 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 77 60 73 62 21 -7 16 -30 -33 -19 18 31 62 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 12 11 14 10 4 10 4 2 8 9 -6 9 -33 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1601 1677 1746 1808 1872 2005 2153 2301 2447 2446 2203 1947 1745 1596 1458 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.7 22.0 23.4 24.9 26.6 28.7 31.2 33.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.2 32.9 33.5 34.2 34.9 36.3 37.8 39.3 40.7 41.9 42.6 42.6 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 4 8 7 5 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -7. -5. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -23. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -6. -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -14. -11. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 32.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.0% 8.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.8% 3.5% 2.6% 0.2% 0.6% 2.4% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 47 47 43 39 40 35 33 31 30 28 31 34 35 36 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 45 41 37 38 33 31 29 28 26 29 32 33 34 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 38 34 35 30 28 26 25 23 26 29 30 31 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 31 27 28 23 21 19 18 16 19 22 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT