* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 44 52 58 64 70 75 67 56 54 52 51 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 44 52 58 64 70 75 67 56 54 52 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 32 37 42 46 52 59 65 60 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 10 11 10 10 3 6 17 36 53 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -4 4 5 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 160 132 127 117 103 102 81 82 344 231 230 226 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.1 28.9 28.2 27.3 27.1 23.7 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 155 162 162 162 166 153 151 142 133 132 103 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 147 153 154 151 150 132 133 128 123 124 96 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 61 62 63 62 59 57 47 33 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 16 17 16 16 16 20 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 40 34 33 30 3 -7 6 18 68 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 32 40 22 14 29 38 57 36 58 90 60 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 4 1 -1 0 0 -11 -55 -124 -188 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 921 831 761 733 741 859 1030 1220 1405 1268 1051 924 1216 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.9 23.9 25.9 27.6 29.2 31.3 34.1 37.3 41.0 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.4 59.5 60.6 61.8 63.6 64.1 63.3 61.0 57.2 51.7 44.7 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 15 14 11 8 12 18 25 30 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 35 49 70 61 58 30 30 23 17 17 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 4. -3. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 5. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 22. 28. 34. 40. 45. 37. 26. 24. 22. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 57.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 14.0% 9.2% 6.9% 6.5% 10.3% 12.0% 22.7% Logistic: 1.0% 4.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 3.9% 8.2% 17.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 6.0% 3.8% 2.7% 2.3% 4.8% 6.8% 13.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 36 44 52 58 64 70 75 67 56 54 52 51 53 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 43 51 57 63 69 74 66 55 53 51 50 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 47 53 59 65 70 62 51 49 47 46 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 39 45 51 57 62 54 43 41 39 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT