* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 41 47 56 65 71 80 87 91 77 58 74 72 71 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 41 47 56 65 71 80 87 91 77 58 74 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 39 45 53 62 69 79 87 86 69 59 56 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 11 11 10 9 9 4 6 22 39 60 68 77 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -3 2 0 6 6 9 23 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 192 157 134 135 109 92 86 133 222 216 213 227 218 197 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.2 28.4 27.8 26.5 23.6 21.3 15.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 148 161 161 165 164 156 155 145 138 124 101 89 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 139 153 151 151 146 136 136 130 127 114 93 82 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 -0.3 1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 59 60 61 60 60 57 55 43 37 37 39 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 15 18 19 20 22 26 30 24 18 43 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 50 43 44 50 36 39 14 24 15 73 131 172 245 260 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 0 3 33 45 14 52 33 58 67 83 98 64 86 71 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 2 3 3 0 -1 2 2 -9 -42 -20 24 -97 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1034 934 844 779 737 739 834 981 1169 1333 1251 1134 836 851 1150 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.7 24.3 25.8 27.3 29.0 31.0 33.5 36.5 40.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.1 58.2 59.3 60.4 62.5 64.1 65.0 64.5 62.5 58.9 53.8 48.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 11 10 8 11 17 23 27 28 28 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 23 31 47 69 61 57 40 34 33 23 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 28. 28. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 3. -5. -17. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 6. -3. 28. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 21. 30. 36. 45. 52. 56. 42. 23. 39. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 56.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.9% 9.3% 7.1% 6.5% 10.7% 12.8% 23.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.2% 2.4% 2.3% 0.7% 5.6% 7.5% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 2.1% Consensus: 1.8% 6.1% 4.0% 3.1% 2.4% 5.5% 6.8% 13.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 41 47 56 65 71 80 87 91 77 58 74 72 71 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 39 45 54 63 69 78 85 89 75 56 72 70 69 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 41 50 59 65 74 81 85 71 52 68 66 65 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 43 52 58 67 74 78 64 45 61 59 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT