* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 50 51 50 49 46 41 38 35 33 33 35 37 37 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 50 51 50 49 46 41 38 35 33 33 35 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 51 52 51 48 44 40 37 35 35 37 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 11 13 18 24 30 32 30 21 15 7 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 -1 2 3 -2 -1 -3 0 1 -2 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 251 267 253 252 247 233 243 235 256 275 321 22 321 318 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.5 27.0 26.6 27.4 27.4 26.5 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 124 122 121 120 117 116 114 118 124 120 129 129 119 110 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 117 114 113 111 108 106 104 106 111 107 114 113 103 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -55.1 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 59 58 55 54 51 48 42 37 34 37 51 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 95 87 92 94 70 70 43 25 -10 -36 -89 -79 -61 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 68 49 52 59 59 43 19 3 -6 -16 -32 27 48 67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 2 3 4 6 1 5 1 1 3 5 4 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1410 1500 1591 1688 1786 1943 2072 2196 2313 2435 2523 2289 2049 1813 1589 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.9 27.8 29.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.6 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.9 35.5 36.9 38.2 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.8 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 4 3 4 6 1 4 9 3 7 7 2 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.0 30.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.6% 10.7% 7.9% 7.0% 9.9% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 20.0% 10.9% 7.4% 2.8% 7.4% 4.1% 2.7% Bayesian: 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 12.3% 7.3% 5.1% 3.3% 5.8% 4.8% 0.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/20/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 47 49 50 51 50 49 46 41 38 35 33 33 35 37 37 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 45 46 45 44 41 36 33 30 28 28 30 32 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 40 39 38 35 30 27 24 22 22 24 26 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 31 30 27 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT