* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132016 09/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 42 49 54 58 58 59 58 58 57 53 53 54 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 42 49 54 58 58 59 58 58 57 53 53 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 38 44 48 50 49 47 45 42 39 39 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 1 3 3 4 8 16 28 33 31 16 8 10 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 0 6 5 2 0 -6 -4 0 -4 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 11 74 300 337 264 249 233 243 243 241 229 192 143 77 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 129 125 123 121 118 119 119 124 125 128 132 126 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 126 123 119 115 112 109 109 108 112 113 116 119 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 61 56 53 50 44 35 31 31 32 36 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 18 17 16 15 15 15 14 12 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 101 103 110 106 118 103 98 88 70 47 13 -48 -77 -62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 57 82 78 70 66 47 44 20 17 4 -14 -8 32 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 1 4 2 3 3 5 2 2 3 -1 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1272 1365 1460 1558 1657 1847 2038 2190 2205 2192 2221 2317 2379 2092 1786 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.2 22.4 24.0 26.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.2 31.1 32.0 32.9 34.6 36.3 37.9 39.5 41.0 42.4 43.6 44.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 13 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 9 8 6 10 13 12 4 7 9 12 8 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 12. 19. 24. 28. 28. 29. 28. 28. 27. 23. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 29.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 13.2% 8.7% 6.0% 5.4% 9.3% 10.4% 14.5% Logistic: 2.9% 14.6% 7.5% 4.2% 1.4% 6.4% 5.9% 4.8% Bayesian: 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 2.6% 9.7% 5.7% 3.4% 2.3% 5.4% 5.5% 6.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 42 49 54 58 58 59 58 58 57 53 53 54 55 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 39 46 51 55 55 56 55 55 54 50 50 51 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 33 40 45 49 49 50 49 49 48 44 44 45 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 37 41 41 42 41 41 40 36 36 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT