* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 61 53 46 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 67 61 53 46 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 59 51 44 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 23 23 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 224 227 230 234 260 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.2 22.4 21.5 21.0 20.3 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 95 86 77 71 63 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 49 47 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 17 15 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 16 3 -4 -12 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 7 -1 3 0 2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 11 4 4 -3 -17 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 476 412 333 241 180 80 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.3 25.4 26.5 27.5 29.1 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 116.8 117.0 116.9 116.8 116.2 115.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -24. -28. -32. -36. -39. -44. -48. -52. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -27. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -17. -24. -38. -49. -57. -65. -71. -77. -80. -83. -88. -93. -98.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.1 116.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##